FIFA World Cup 2026 · USA / Canada / Mexico
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Model view · 100,000 tournament simulations
| Team | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | 🏆 Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 99% | 81% | 64% | 51% | 38% | 27% |
| Argentina | 98% | 71% | 56% | 42% | 30% | 18% |
| France | 96% | 76% | 58% | 41% | 24% | 13% |
| England | 96% | 68% | 43% | 20% | 12% | 5.8% |
| Brazil | 94% | 61% | 40% | 25% | 11% | 5.2% |
| Colombia | 91% | 62% | 37% | 18% | 9.6% | 4.4% |
| Ecuador | 94% | 65% | 38% | 20% | 8.5% | 3.4% |
| Portugal | 90% | 59% | 33% | 15% | 7.8% | 3.3% |
| Netherlands | 91% | 51% | 32% | 17% | 6.7% | 2.8% |
| Germany | 92% | 59% | 32% | 15% | 5.8% | 2.1% |
| Mexico | 97% | 70% | 35% | 15% | 5.3% | 1.8% |
| Japan | 88% | 45% | 26% | 12% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| Field (other 36 teams) | 11% | |||||
Pure model view (our calibrated engine, full-bracket simulation, host advantage included) — it is not blended with betting markets, which price the favourites less aggressively (antepost markets put Spain nearer 18%). Same favourite and podium as the major public supercomputer models. Updated 2026-06-07 · for information only, not betting advice.
Group A
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mexico | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
 South Africa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
 South Korea | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
 Czechia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
Group B
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Switzerland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
 Canada | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
 Bosnia-Herzegovina | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
 Qatar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 |
Brazil
Morocco
Scotland
HaitiGroup D
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 United States | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
 Australia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
 Paraguay | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
 Türkiye | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
Group E
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Germany | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
 Ivory Coast | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
 Ecuador | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
 Curaçao | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 |
Group F
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Netherlands | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
 Japan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
 Sweden | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
 Tunisia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 0 |
Group G
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Belgium | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
 Egypt | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
 Iran | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 New Zealand | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Group H
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Spain | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
 Cape Verde | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 Uruguay | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
 Saudi Arabia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 2 |
France
Norway
Senegal
Iraq
Argentina
Austria
Algeria
JordanGroup K
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Colombia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
 Portugal | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
 Congo DR | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
 Uzbekistan | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
England
Croatia
Ghana
PanamaThu 11 Jun
19:00 UTCMexico2–0South Africa
Wed 17 Jun
Thu 18 Jun
02:00 UTCUzbekistan1–3Colombia
16:00 UTCCzechia1–1South Africa
19:00 UTCSwitzerland4–1Bosnia-Herzegovina
Tue 23 Jun
17:00 UTCPortugal5–0Uzbekistan
Thu 25 Jun
01:00 UTCSouth Africa1–0South Korea
20:00 UTCCuraçao0–2Ivory Coast
23:00 UTCTunisia1–3Netherlands
Fri 26 Jun
02:00 UTCTürkiye3–2United States
Sat 27 Jun
00:00 UTCCape Verde0–0Saudi Arabia
03:00 UTCNew Zealand1–5Belgium
23:30 UTCCongo DR3–1Uzbekistan
Thu 2 Jul
00:00 UTCUnited States2–0Bosnia-Herzegovina
Sun 12 Jul
01:00 UTCArgentina3–1Switzerland
Algeria26 playersArgentina26 playersAustralia26 playersAustria25 playersBelgium26 playersBosnia and Herzegovina26 playersBrazil26 playersCanada26 playersCape Verde26 playersColombia26 playersCroatia26 playersCuraçao26 playersCzech Republic26 playersDR Congo26 playersEcuador26 playersEgypt26 playersEngland26 playersFrance26 playersGermany26 playersGhana26 playersHaiti26 playersIran26 playersIraq26 playersIvory Coast26 playersJapan26 playersJordan26 playersMexico26 playersMorocco26 playersNetherlands26 playersNew Zealand26 playersNorway26 playersPanama26 playersParaguay26 playersPortugal26 playersQatar26 playersSaudi Arabia26 playersScotland26 playersSenegal26 playersSouth Africa26 playersSouth Korea26 playersSpain26 playersSweden26 playersSwitzerland26 playersTunisia26 playersTurkey26 playersUnited States26 playersUruguay26 playersUzbekistan26 players