FIFA World Cup 2026 · USA / Canada / Mexico
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Model view · 100,000 tournament simulations
| Team | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 99% | 81% | 64% | 51% | 38% | 27% |
| Argentina | 98% | 71% | 56% | 42% | 30% | 18% |
| France | 96% | 76% | 58% | 41% | 24% | 13% |
| England | 96% | 68% | 43% | 20% | 12% | 5.8% |
| Brazil | 94% | 61% | 40% | 25% | 11% | 5.2% |
| Colombia | 91% | 62% | 37% | 18% | 9.6% | 4.4% |
| Ecuador | 94% | 65% | 38% | 20% | 8.5% | 3.4% |
| Portugal | 90% | 59% | 33% | 15% | 7.8% | 3.3% |
| Netherlands | 91% | 51% | 32% | 17% | 6.7% | 2.8% |
| Germany | 92% | 59% | 32% | 15% | 5.8% | 2.1% |
| Mexico | 97% | 70% | 35% | 15% | 5.3% | 1.8% |
| Japan | 88% | 45% | 26% | 12% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| Field (other 36 teams) | 11% | |||||
Pure model view (our calibrated engine, full-bracket simulation, host advantage included) — it is not blended with betting markets, which price the favourites less aggressively (antepost markets put Spain nearer 18%). Same favourite and podium as the major public supercomputer models. Updated 2026-06-07 · for information only, not betting advice.
Group A
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mexico | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
 South Africa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
 South Korea | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
 Czechia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
Group B
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Switzerland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
 Canada | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
 Bosnia-Herzegovina | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
 Qatar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 |
Brazil
Morocco
Scotland
HaitiGroup D
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 United States | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
 Australia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
 Paraguay | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
 Türkiye | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
Group E
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Germany | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
 Ivory Coast | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
 Ecuador | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
 Curaçao | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 |
Group F
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Netherlands | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
 Japan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
 Sweden | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
 Tunisia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 0 |
Group G
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Belgium | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
 Egypt | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
 Iran | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 New Zealand | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Group H
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Spain | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
 Cape Verde | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 Uruguay | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
 Saudi Arabia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 2 |
France
Norway
Senegal
Iraq
Argentina
Austria
Algeria
JordanGroup K
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Colombia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
 Portugal | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
 Congo DR | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
 Uzbekistan | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
England
Croatia
Ghana
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Algeria26 playersArgentina26 playersAustralia26 playersAustria25 playersBelgium26 playersBosnia and Herzegovina26 playersBrazil26 playersCanada26 playersCape Verde26 playersColombia26 playersCroatia26 playersCuraçao26 playersCzech Republic26 playersDR Congo26 playersEcuador26 playersEgypt26 playersEngland26 playersFrance26 playersGermany26 playersGhana26 playersHaiti26 playersIran26 playersIraq26 playersIvory Coast26 playersJapan26 playersJordan26 playersMexico26 playersMorocco26 playersNetherlands26 playersNew Zealand26 playersNorway26 playersPanama26 playersParaguay26 playersPortugal26 playersQatar26 playersSaudi Arabia26 playersScotland26 playersSenegal26 playersSouth Africa26 playersSouth Korea26 playersSpain26 playersSweden26 playersSwitzerland26 playersTunisia26 playersTurkey26 playersUnited States26 playersUruguay26 playersUzbekistan26 players